Smart Sarpong, a well-known Associate Professor of Statistics and Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, has released new election research results in Ghana.
The New Patriotic party (NPP) candidate Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is in the lead with 49.1%, while John Mahama from the NDC has 45.8%.
This is Sarpong’s sixth direct press event since 2014, showing his dedication to offering important third-party insights to political figures.
He highlighted the role of scientific research in politics, recalling his accurate forecast of the NPP’s 51.4% win in the 2020 elections.
Despite some doubts at first, his predictions were correct, emphasizing the need for data-driven choices.
The research examined essential aspects of quality election studies:
– *Heterogeneity vs. Homogeneity*: Acknowledging the variety among voters influenced by language, culture, traditions, political history, migration, and religion.
– *Sampling*: Grasping Population Specific Sampling (PSS) and its effect on representativeness.
– *Generalizability*: Utilizing statistical principles like the Central Limit Theorem, Law of Statistical Regularity, and Law of Inertia of Large Samples.
The study gathered 100,059 responses from all 276 constituencies in Ghana’s 16 regions, analyzing 99,355 enhanced sample views.
Face-to-face data collection with CAPI forms ensured the data’s quality.
Recent polls from Outcomes International indicate Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia at 49.4%, with John Mahama at 45.1%.
These results highlight the importance of thorough research in forecasting election results.
Sarpong’s efforts show that politics is increasingly scientific, and disregarding data is “fictitious absurdity.”
By valuing quality research, stakeholders can make better decisions, leading to a more engaging and thoughtful political environment.
